A new report from eMarketer documents the incredibly rapid growth in social networks over the last couple years, and predicts continuing growth at least into the middle years of this decade -- but also suggests that social networks may be approaching saturation in the U.S.
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According to eMarketer, the number of Americans who checked into a social network at least once a month increased by 24.7 million from 2008-2009, from 84.5 million to 109.2 million -- representing an increase from 41.6% to 51.6% of the total population. This year, eMarketer expects 17.8 million more people to sign on, bringing the proportion to 57.5% of the total population, followed by another 13.2 million in 2011, 10.2 million in 2012, 7.5 million in 2013, and 7 million in 2014, when a total 164.9 million Americans will check in to a social network at least once a month, representing 65.8% of the population.
There's no question this would represent a slowing in the rate of growth: from 2008-2014, the year-over-year percentage growth rate would decrease from 29.2% to just 4.4%. This forecast isn't really surprising, considering that the growth rate in the overall U.S. Internet population is also slowing; according to Pew, the proportion of Americans with broadband access at home edged up from 63% in 2009 to 66% in 2010 -- a 3% increase, compared to the 8% increase from 2008-2009.
So how can social networks to
continue growing? In the short term, this will require breaking through
to previously untapped or underrepresented populations.
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Source: Erik Sass, The Social Graf: "MediaPost"
